Florida International’s third-down conversion rate with Sterling Joseph and without Sterling Joseph
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida International was 2.8 percentage points under with Sterling Joseph and 1.6 percentage points over without Sterling Joseph over its last 25 games, 12 games against 7. The plain averages are 37.2% and 40.9%, a difference of 3.8%. Both neutral-site games were with Sterling Joseph.
Sterling Joseph, running back: 211 rushing yards, 30 carries and 3 receptions in 10 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −4.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Sterling Joseph vs without Sterling Joseph is unusual: shuffle which games were with Sterling Joseph and it comes up 4 times in 100.
A −3.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Sterling Joseph vs without Sterling Joseph is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Sterling Joseph and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs New Mexico State (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 46.2% | 35.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Kennesaw State | L | 28.6% | 36.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Middle Tennessee (neutral) | W | 41.7% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 33.3% | 32.6% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 25.0% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Delaware | L | 29.4% | 38.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UConn | L | 20.0% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | W | 46.7% | 32.5% | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vsKennesaw State | L | 40.0% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @ Missouri State | L | 37.5% | 35.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Middle Tennessee | W | 41.7% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 50.0% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsJacksonville State | W | 15.4% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 33.3% | 39.1% | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs UTSA (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 31.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ South Florida | L | 29.4% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 47.1% | 39.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 47.4% | 41.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 64.3% | — | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vsNew Mexico State | W | 40.0% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @Jacksonville State | L | 53.3% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | L | 46.2% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Liberty | L | 20.0% | 36.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bethune-Cookman, Long Island University have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Sterling Joseph nor without Sterling Joseph: Sterling Joseph had no game for the team that season, and sit out.