Florida International’s third-down conversion rate with Sterling Joseph and without Sterling Joseph
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida International was 0.8 percentage points under with Sterling Joseph and 10.5 percentage points over without Sterling Joseph in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 42.0% and 53.3%, a difference of 11.3%. All 4 home games were with Sterling Joseph. All 6 night games were with Sterling Joseph. All 4 nonconference games were with Sterling Joseph.
Sterling Joseph, running back: 88 rushing yards, 23 carries and 3 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Sterling Joseph is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Sterling Joseph
−0.8%
without Sterling Joseph
+10.5%
-10%0%10%
plain
42.0%
53.3%
20%40%60%
The games
with Sterling Josephwithout Sterling Joseph
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ South Florida | L | 29.4% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 47.1% | 39.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Florida Atlantic | L | 47.4% | 41.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 64.3% | — | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | W | 40.0% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 53.3% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 46.2% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 20.0% | 36.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Long Island University has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.