Florida International’s third-down conversion rate with Anthony Carrie and without Anthony Carrie
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida International was 1.7 percentage points under with Anthony Carrie and 7.7 percentage points over without Anthony Carrie over its last 25 games, 18 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.2% and 46.2%, a difference of 7.9%. All 9 away games were with Anthony Carrie. Both neutral-site games were with Anthony Carrie. All 10 day games were with Anthony Carrie.
Anthony Carrie, running back: 727 rushing yards, 185 carries and 20 receptions in 20 of those 25 games.
One game without Anthony Carrie is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Anthony Carrie
−1.7%
without Anthony Carrie
+7.7%
-20%-10%0%10%
plain
38.2%
46.2%
20%40%60%
The games
with Anthony Carriewithout Anthony Carrie
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs New Mexico State (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 46.2% | 35.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Kennesaw State | L | 28.6% | 36.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Middle Tennessee (neutral) | W | 41.7% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 33.3% | 32.6% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 25.0% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Delaware | L | 29.4% | 38.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UConn | L | 20.0% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | W | 46.7% | 32.5% | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vsKennesaw State | L | 40.0% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @ Missouri State | L | 37.5% | 35.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Middle Tennessee | W | 41.7% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 50.0% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsJacksonville State | W | 15.4% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 33.3% | 39.1% | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs UTSA (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 31.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ South Florida | L | 29.4% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 47.1% | 39.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 47.4% | 41.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 64.3% | — | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vsNew Mexico State | W | 40.0% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @Jacksonville State | L | 53.3% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | L | 46.2% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Liberty | L | 20.0% | 36.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Bethune-Cookman, Long Island University have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Anthony Carrie nor without Anthony Carrie: Anthony Carrie had no game for the team that season, and sit out.