Florida International’s third-down conversion rate with Anthony Carrie and without Anthony Carrie
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida International was 0.4 percentage points under with Anthony Carrie and 7.7 percentage points over without Anthony Carrie in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 43.1% and 46.2%, a difference of 3.1%. All 4 away games were with Anthony Carrie. Both day games were with Anthony Carrie. All 4 nonconference games were with Anthony Carrie.
Anthony Carrie, running back: 258 rushing yards, 82 carries and 10 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Anthony Carrie is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Anthony Carrie
−0.4%
without Anthony Carrie
+7.7%
-10%0%10%
plain
43.1%
46.2%
20%40%60%
The games
with Anthony Carriewithout Anthony Carrie
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ South Florida | L | 29.4% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 47.1% | 39.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Florida Atlantic | L | 47.4% | 41.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 64.3% | — | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | W | 40.0% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 53.3% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 46.2% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 20.0% | 36.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Long Island University has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.