Putting Up Numbers· college football

Florida International’s rushing yards with Anthony Carrie and without Anthony Carrie

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida International was 24.9 yards under with Anthony Carrie and 26.1 yards over without Anthony Carrie in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 108.0 and 168.0, a difference of 60.0. All 4 away games were with Anthony Carrie. Both day games were with Anthony Carrie. All 4 nonconference games were with Anthony Carrie.

Anthony Carrie, running back: 258 rushing yards, 82 carries and 10 receptions in 7 games this season, 34% of Florida International’s rushing yards in those games.

One game without Anthony Carrie is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

rushing yards a game over expected

The games

with Anthony Carriewithout Anthony Carrie
Florida International’s games, 2026, each marked with Anthony Carrie or without Anthony Carrie
SideDateGameResultrushing yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026@South FloridaL8086.2
Sep 12, 2026vsBuffaloW154125.0
Sep 19, 2026@Florida AtlanticL95162.5
Sep 26, 2026vsLLong Island UniversityW169—
Oct 7, 2026vsNew Mexico StateW100125.4
Oct 13, 2026@Jacksonville StateL124120.7
Oct 20, 2026vsMiddle TennesseeL168141.9
Oct 31, 2026@LibertyL34116.4

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Long Island University has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.