Florida International’s carries with Sterling Joseph and without Sterling Joseph
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida International was 0.5 carries under with Sterling Joseph and 4.3 carries under without Sterling Joseph in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.3 and 32.0, a difference of 1.3. Expected was 3.3 carries lower with Sterling Joseph than without Sterling Joseph. All 4 home games were with Sterling Joseph. All 6 night games were with Sterling Joseph. All 4 nonconference games were with Sterling Joseph.
Sterling Joseph, running back: 88 rushing yards, 23 carries and 3 receptions in 7 games this season, 10% of Florida International’s carries in those games.
One game without Sterling Joseph is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Sterling Joseph
−0.5
without Sterling Joseph
−4.3
010
plain
33.3
32.0
3040
The games
with Sterling Josephwithout Sterling Joseph
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ South Florida | L | 25 | 33.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 39 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Florida Atlantic | L | 35 | 30.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 38 | — | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | W | 44 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 32 | 36.3 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 29 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 23 | 32.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Long Island University has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.