Florida Atlantic’s third-down conversion rate with Kaden Shields-Dutton and without Kaden Shields-Dutton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida Atlantic was 3.5 percentage points over with Kaden Shields-Dutton and 1.0 percentage points over without Kaden Shields-Dutton over its last 25 games, 18 games against 5. The plain averages are 43.6% and 40.6%, a difference of 2.9%. All 3 of Tom Herman’s games were without Kaden Shields-Dutton.
Kaden Shields-Dutton, running back: 587 rushing yards, 112 carries and 22 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Kaden Shields-Dutton
+3.5%
without Kaden Shields-Dutton
+1.0%
0%20%
A +2.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Kaden Shields-Dutton vs without Kaden Shields-Dutton is about what you’d expect.
plain
43.6%
40.6%
20%40%60%
A +2.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Kaden Shields-Dutton vs without Kaden Shields-Dutton is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Kaden Shields-Duttonwithout Kaden Shields-Dutton
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | vs South Florida | L | 31.3% | 35.5% | |
| Nov 7, 2024 | @ East Carolina | L | 40.0% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Temple | L | 21.4% | 35.3% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Charlotte | L | 46.2% | 35.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Tulsa | W | 61.5% | 36.8% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Maryland | L | 35.0% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Florida A&M | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | 47.4% | 37.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Memphis | L | 36.8% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Rice | W | 57.1% | 35.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 30.0% | 42.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @South Florida | L | 28.6% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Navy | L | 27.8% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsTulsa | W | 30.8% | 40.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 42.9% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 53.3% | 37.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | L | 20.0% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Florida | L | 50.0% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNavy | W | 57.1% | 44.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 37.5% | 43.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 55.0% | 43.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Army | L | 71.4% | 47.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsRice | W | 46.7% | 50.4% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 55.6% | 43.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Florida A&M, Texas Southern have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.