Florida Atlantic’s third-down conversion rate with Kaden Shields-Dutton and without Kaden Shields-Dutton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida Atlantic was 8.0 percentage points over with Kaden Shields-Dutton and 11.5 percentage points over without Kaden Shields-Dutton in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 53.0% and 52.5%, a difference of 0.5%. Expected was 1.5 percentage points higher with Kaden Shields-Dutton than without Kaden Shields-Dutton. All 4 conference games were with Kaden Shields-Dutton.
Kaden Shields-Dutton, running back: 90 rushing yards, 21 carries and 5 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Kaden Shields-Dutton is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +0.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Kaden Shields-Dutton vs without Kaden Shields-Dutton is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Florida | L | 50.0% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 57.1% | 44.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 37.5% | 43.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 55.0% | 43.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Army | L | 71.4% | 47.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 46.7% | 50.4% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 55.6% | 43.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.