Florida Atlantic’s points of margin with Kaden Shields-Dutton and without Kaden Shields-Dutton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida Atlantic was 0.5 points under with Kaden Shields-Dutton and 8.1 points under without Kaden Shields-Dutton over its last 25 games, 18 games against 5. The plain averages are -5.4 and 1.8, a difference of 7.3. All 3 of Tom Herman’s games were without Kaden Shields-Dutton.
Kaden Shields-Dutton, running back: 587 rushing yards, 112 carries and 22 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Kaden Shields-Dutton
−0.5
without Kaden Shields-Dutton
−8.1
-2002040
A +7.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Kaden Shields-Dutton vs without Kaden Shields-Dutton is about what you’d expect.
plain
-5.4
1.8
050
A −7.3 difference in points of margin with Kaden Shields-Dutton vs without Kaden Shields-Dutton is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Kaden Shields-Duttonwithout Kaden Shields-Dutton
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | vs South Florida | L | -23 | -3.7 | |
| Nov 7, 2024 | @ East Carolina | L | -35 | -6.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Temple | L | -3 | 1.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Charlotte | L | -12 | 1.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Tulsa | W | 47 | 3.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Maryland | L | -32 | -13.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Florida A&M | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | -10 | -2.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Memphis | L | -29 | -10.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Rice | W | 6 | 1.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 20 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @South Florida | L | -35 | -26.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Navy | L | -10 | -18.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsTulsa | W | 19 | -0.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | -11 | -21.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs UConn | L | -3 | -5.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | L | -39 | -12.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Florida | L | -45 | -22.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNavy | W | 8 | -4.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 6 | 3.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 28 | 2.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 56 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Army | L | -32 | -2.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsRice | W | 2 | 8.8 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | -7 | -16.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Florida A&M, Texas Southern have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.