Florida Atlantic’s points of margin with Kaden Shields-Dutton and without Kaden Shields-Dutton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida Atlantic was 5.8 points under with Kaden Shields-Dutton and 25.8 points over without Kaden Shields-Dutton in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -11.3 and 42.0, a difference of 53.3. All 4 conference games were with Kaden Shields-Dutton.
Kaden Shields-Dutton, running back: 90 rushing yards, 21 carries and 5 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Kaden Shields-Dutton is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −53.3 difference in points of margin with Kaden Shields-Dutton vs without Kaden Shields-Dutton is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kaden Shields-Dutton and it comes up 13 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Florida | L | -45 | -22.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 8 | -4.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 6 | 3.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 28 | 2.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 56 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Army | L | -32 | -2.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 2 | 8.8 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | -7 | -16.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.