Florida Atlantic’s penalty yards in a conference game and in a nonconference game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida Atlantic was 4.8 yards under in a conference game and 18.4 yards over in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 17 games against 6. The plain averages are 51.2 and 61.0, a difference of 9.8. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game. All 3 of Tom Herman’s games were in a conference game. Both of Chad Lunsford’s games were in a conference game.
Florida Atlantic’s −23.3 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 129th of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
penalty yards a game over expected
A −23.3 difference in penalty yards over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 2 times in 100.
A −9.8 difference in penalty yards in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | vs South Florida | L | 82 | 53.1 | |
| Nov 7, 2024 | @ East Carolina | L | 25 | 54.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Temple | L | 35 | 45.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Charlotte | L | 32 | 48.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Tulsa | W | 40 | 65.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Maryland | L | 77 | 53.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Florida A&M | W | 15 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | 92 | 55.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Memphis | L | 62 | 53.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Rice | W | 55 | 55.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs UAB | W | 56 | 57.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @South Florida | L | 75 | 65.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Navy | L | 51 | 50.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsTulsa | W | 60 | 57.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 28 | 58.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 63 | 49.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | L | 38 | 56.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Florida | L | 88 | 56.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsNavy | W | 75 | 54.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 81 | 61.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 47 | 60.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 25 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Army | L | 53 | 56.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsRice | W | 45 | 57.7 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 58 | 60.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.8 in 2024, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% in 2024, 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Florida A&M, Texas Southern have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.