Florida Atlantic’s carries with Kaden Shields-Dutton and without Kaden Shields-Dutton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida Atlantic was 0.6 carries under with Kaden Shields-Dutton and 6.0 carries over without Kaden Shields-Dutton in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 34.5 and 34.0, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 3.9 carries lower with Kaden Shields-Dutton than without Kaden Shields-Dutton. All 4 conference games were with Kaden Shields-Dutton.
Kaden Shields-Dutton, running back: 90 rushing yards, 21 carries and 5 receptions in 6 games this season, 10% of Florida Atlantic’s carries in those games.
2 games without Kaden Shields-Dutton is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +0.5 difference in carries with Kaden Shields-Dutton vs without Kaden Shields-Dutton is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Florida | L | 37 | 32.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 42 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida International | W | 31 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 45 | 39.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 23 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Army | L | 27 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 42 | 37.6 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 28 | 39.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.