Eastern Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Noah Kim and since Noah Kim’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Eastern Michigan was 3.9 percentage points over with Noah Kim and 30.8 percentage points under since Noah Kim’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 42.1% and 13.3%, a difference of 28.8%. All 4 home games were with Noah Kim. Both night games were with Noah Kim. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Noah Kim.
Noah Kim, quarterback: 1,678 passing yards, 285 pass attempts and 169 completions in 8 games this season.
One game since Noah Kim’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Noah Kim
+3.9%
since Noah Kim’s last game
−30.8%
-20%0%20%40%
plain
42.1%
13.3%
20%40%60%
The games
with Noah Kimsince Noah Kim’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 18.8% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 46.2% | 33.3% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 25.0% | 39.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 78.6% | 32.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 44.4% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 33.3% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 13.3% | 44.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Sacramento State, Lindenwood have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.