Eastern Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Nick Devereaux and without Nick Devereaux
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Eastern Michigan was 13.6 percentage points under with Nick Devereaux and 15.6 percentage points over without Nick Devereaux in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 27.3% and 53.4%, a difference of 26.1%. Both night games were with Nick Devereaux. All 4 first-half games were with Nick Devereaux.
Nick Devereaux, receiver: 171 receiving yards, 19 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 5 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −29.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Nick Devereaux vs without Nick Devereaux is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Nick Devereaux and it comes up 13 times in 100.
A −26.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Nick Devereaux vs without Nick Devereaux is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 18.8% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 46.2% | 33.3% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 25.0% | 39.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 78.6% | 32.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 44.4% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 33.3% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 13.3% | 44.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Sacramento State, Lindenwood have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.