Eastern Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Amareon Blue and without Amareon Blue
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Eastern Michigan was 1.2 percentage points under with Amareon Blue and 1.3 percentage points over without Amareon Blue over its last 25 games, 9 games against 9. The plain averages are 39.0% and 41.1%, a difference of 2.1%. All 3 games after a bye were without Amareon Blue.
Amareon Blue, running back: 405 rushing yards, 79 carries and 8 receptions in 9 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Amareon Blue
−1.2%
without Amareon Blue
+1.3%
-20%0%20%40%
A −2.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Amareon Blue vs without Amareon Blue is about what you’d expect.
plain
39.0%
41.1%
20%40%60%
A −2.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Amareon Blue vs without Amareon Blue is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Amareon Blue and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
with Amareon Bluewithout Amareon Blue
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Ohio | L | 41.2% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | vs Buffalo | L | 35.7% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Western Michigan | L | 66.7% | 40.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Texas State | L | 40.0% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsLLong Island University | L | 41.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 28.6% | 37.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 42.9% | 41.5% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 50.0% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Buffalo | L | 40.0% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 37.5% | 46.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 46.2% | 43.6% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsOhio | L | 41.7% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | W | 47.1% | 38.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Ball State | W | 50.0% | 40.2% | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vsWestern Michigan | L | 25.0% | 37.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 18.8% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 46.2% | 33.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 25.0% | 39.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 78.6% | 32.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 44.4% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 33.3% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Ohio | L | 13.3% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsCentral Michigan (neutral) | L | — | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Long Island University, Sacramento State, Lindenwood, Central Michigan have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Amareon Blue nor without Amareon Blue: Amareon Blue had no game for the team that season, and sit out.