Eastern Michigan’s points with Amareon Blue and without Amareon Blue
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Eastern Michigan was 2.2 points under with Amareon Blue and 0.8 points under without Amareon Blue over its last 25 games, 9 games against 10. The plain averages are 20.8 and 23.5, a difference of 2.7. Expected was 3.1 points lower with Amareon Blue than without Amareon Blue. All 3 games after a bye were without Amareon Blue.
Amareon Blue, running back: 405 rushing yards, 79 carries and 8 receptions in 9 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
with Amareon Blue
−2.2
without Amareon Blue
−0.8
-10010
A −1.4 difference in points over expected with Amareon Blue vs without Amareon Blue is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.8
23.5
102030
A −2.7 difference in points with Amareon Blue vs without Amareon Blue is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Amareon Bluewithout Amareon Blue
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Ohio | L | 10 | 18.1 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | vs Buffalo | L | 20 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Western Michigan | L | 18 | 27.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Texas State | L | 27 | 28.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsLLong Island University | L | 23 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 23 | 16.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 34 | 29.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 13 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Buffalo | L | 30 | 25.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 16 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 30 | 21.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsOhio | L | 21 | 23.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | W | 27 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Ball State | W | 24 | 27.6 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vsWestern Michigan | L | 21 | 18.8 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 21 | 20.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 7 | 15.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 10 | 8.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 29 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 38 | 18.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 25 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 14 | 28.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Ohio | L | 20 | 21.0 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsCentral Michigan (neutral) | L | 7 | 24.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.8 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Long Island University, Sacramento State, Lindenwood have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Amareon Blue nor without Amareon Blue: Amareon Blue had no game for the team that season, and sit out.