Eastern Michigan’s points of margin with Nick Devereaux and without Nick Devereaux
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Eastern Michigan was 6.9 points under with Nick Devereaux and 4.7 points over without Nick Devereaux in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are -14.2 and 8.0, a difference of 22.2. Both night games were with Nick Devereaux. All 4 first-half games were with Nick Devereaux.
Nick Devereaux, receiver: 171 receiving yards, 19 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 5 games this season.
points of margin a game over expected
with Nick Devereaux
−6.9
without Nick Devereaux
+4.7
020
A −11.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Nick Devereaux vs without Nick Devereaux is about what you’d expect.
plain
-14.2
8.0
-40-20020
A −22.2 difference in points of margin with Nick Devereaux vs without Nick Devereaux is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Nick Devereauxwithout Nick Devereaux
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 11 | — | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | -6 | -2.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | -28 | -17.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | -44 | -24.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 26 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 24 | -12.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 2 | 6.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | -20 | -2.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | -4 | -10.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Sacramento State, Lindenwood have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.