Putting Up Numbers· college football

Eastern Michigan’s passing yards with Noah Kim and since Noah Kim’s last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Eastern Michigan was 0.8 yards over with Noah Kim and 28.6 yards under since Noah Kim’s last game over its last 25 games, 17 games against 1. The plain averages are 226.9 and 197.0, a difference of 29.8. All 10 home games were with Noah Kim. All 5 night games were with Noah Kim. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with Noah Kim.

Noah Kim, quarterback: 4,495 passing yards, 687 pass attempts and 416 completions in 20 of those 25 games, 99% of Eastern Michigan’s passing yards in those games.

One game since Noah Kim’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

passing yards a game over expected

The games

with Noah Kimsince Noah Kim’s last game
Eastern Michigan’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Noah Kim or since Noah Kim’s last game
SideDateGameResultpassing yardsExpected
Nov 2, 2024vsToledoL265230.5
Nov 13, 2024@OhioL155240.9
Nov 20, 2024vsBuffaloL375260.6
Nov 30, 2024@Western MichiganL91273.3
Aug 30, 2025@Texas StateL248250.6
Sep 6, 2025vsLLong Island UniversityL189—
Sep 13, 2025@KentuckyL330212.4
Sep 20, 2025vsLouisianaW226250.7
Sep 27, 2025@Central MichiganL175247.4
Oct 4, 2025@BuffaloL168235.2
Oct 11, 2025vsNorthern IllinoisW147225.5
Oct 18, 2025@Miami (OH)L309234.4
Oct 25, 2025vsOhioL259231.3
Nov 8, 2025vsBowling GreenW210239.8
Nov 15, 2025@Ball StateW229248.9
Nov 25, 2025vsWestern MichiganL327194.1
Aug 29, 2026vsSSacramento StateW279—
Sep 4, 2026vsSan Jose StateL174228.7
Sep 12, 2026@Michigan StateL118189.1
Sep 19, 2026@WisconsinL154173.6
Sep 26, 2026vsLLindenwoodW257—
Oct 3, 2026@UMassW219181.8
Oct 10, 2026@AkronW277214.7
Oct 17, 2026vsToledoL242240.0
Oct 24, 2026@OhioL197225.6

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 in 2025, plus 4.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2025, 59% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
  • Long Island University, Sacramento State, Lindenwood have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
  • 4 games in 2024 are neither with Noah Kim nor since Noah Kim’s last game: Noah Kim had no game for the team that season, and sit out.