Eastern Michigan’s passing yards with Nick Devereaux and without Nick Devereaux
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Eastern Michigan was 43.5 yards under with Nick Devereaux and 33.8 yards over without Nick Devereaux in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 184.4 and 248.8, a difference of 64.4. Both night games were with Nick Devereaux. All 4 first-half games were with Nick Devereaux.
Nick Devereaux, receiver: 171 receiving yards, 19 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 5 games this season.
passing yards a game over expected
A −77.3 difference in passing yards over expected with Nick Devereaux vs without Nick Devereaux is unusual: shuffle which games were with Nick Devereaux and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A −64.4 difference in passing yards with Nick Devereaux vs without Nick Devereaux is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Nick Devereaux and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 279 | — | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 174 | 228.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 118 | 189.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 154 | 173.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 257 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 219 | 181.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 277 | 214.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 242 | 240.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 197 | 225.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Sacramento State, Lindenwood have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.