Eastern Michigan’s carries with Noah Kim and since Noah Kim’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Eastern Michigan was 1.0 carries under with Noah Kim and 3.9 carries under since Noah Kim’s last game over its last 25 games, 17 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.1 and 28.0, a difference of 3.1. All 10 home games were with Noah Kim. All 5 night games were with Noah Kim. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with Noah Kim.
Noah Kim, quarterback: 4,495 passing yards, 687 pass attempts and 416 completions in 20 of those 25 games, 17% of Eastern Michigan’s carries in those games.
One game since Noah Kim’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Noah Kim
−1.0
since Noah Kim’s last game
−3.9
-10010
plain
31.1
28.0
304050
The games
with Noah Kimsince Noah Kim’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Toledo | L | 41 | 41.2 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Ohio | L | 34 | 33.5 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | vs Buffalo | L | 31 | 37.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Western Michigan | L | 36 | 38.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Texas State | L | 33 | 32.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsLLong Island University | L | 25 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 30 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 36 | 34.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 29 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Buffalo | L | 54 | 37.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 37 | 36.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 21 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsOhio | L | 25 | 30.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | W | 35 | 32.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Ball State | W | 37 | 32.8 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vsWestern Michigan | L | 23 | 32.2 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 24 | 35.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 26 | 31.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 30 | 29.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 31 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 38 | 30.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 32 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsToledo | L | 28 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Ohio | L | 28 | 31.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Long Island University, Sacramento State, Lindenwood have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Noah Kim nor since Noah Kim’s last game: Noah Kim had no game for the team that season, and sit out.