Eastern Michigan’s carries with Nick Devereaux and without Nick Devereaux
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Eastern Michigan was 5.2 carries under with Nick Devereaux and 2.0 carries over without Nick Devereaux in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 27.0 and 32.3, a difference of 5.3. Both night games were with Nick Devereaux. All 4 first-half games were with Nick Devereaux.
Nick Devereaux, receiver: 171 receiving yards, 19 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 5 games this season.
carries a game over expected
with Nick Devereaux
−5.2
without Nick Devereaux
+2.0
-10-505
A −7.3 difference in carries over expected with Nick Devereaux vs without Nick Devereaux is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Nick Devereaux and it comes up 17 times in 100.
plain
27.0
32.3
253035
A −5.3 difference in carries with Nick Devereaux vs without Nick Devereaux is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Nick Devereauxwithout Nick Devereaux
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 24 | 35.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan State | L | 26 | 31.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 30 | 29.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 31 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 38 | 30.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Akron | W | 32 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 28 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 28 | 31.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Sacramento State, Lindenwood have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.