Duke’s third-down conversion rate with Javen Nicholas and without Javen Nicholas
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Duke was 3.0 percentage points over with Javen Nicholas and 9.3 percentage points under without Javen Nicholas over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 40.3% and 42.7%, a difference of 2.5%. Expected was 5.4 percentage points lower with Javen Nicholas than without Javen Nicholas. All 5 conference games were with Javen Nicholas. All 3 nonconference games were without Javen Nicholas.
Javen Nicholas, receiver: 57 receiving yards and 4 receptions in 3 of those 25 games.
3 games without Javen Nicholas is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +12.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Javen Nicholas vs without Javen Nicholas is about what you’d expect.
A −2.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Javen Nicholas vs without Javen Nicholas is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 18.2% | 32.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Wake Forest | W | 38.5% | 36.1% | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | L | 35.3% | 28.9% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsEElon | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Illinois | L | 40.0% | 42.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 42.9% | 39.8% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 41.7% | 42.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Syracuse | W | 46.2% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ California | W | 45.5% | 41.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 46.7% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Clemson | W | 21.4% | 35.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UConn | L | 37.5% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | 26.7% | 33.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ North Carolina | W | 40.0% | 41.4% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsWake Forest | W | 38.5% | 37.0% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsVirginia (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 31.9% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | W | 35.3% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTulane | W | 44.4% | 43.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Illinois | W | 22.2% | 42.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 36.4% | 43.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs William & Mary | W | 61.5% | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | L | 58.8% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina | L | 44.4% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Virginia | W | 20.0% | 35.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 41.7% | 32.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- William & Mary has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Javen Nicholas nor without Javen Nicholas: Javen Nicholas had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.