Duke’s points of margin with Javen Nicholas and without Javen Nicholas
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Duke was 3.3 points over with Javen Nicholas and 1.0 points over without Javen Nicholas in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 13.8 and 24.3, a difference of 10.5. All 5 conference games were with Javen Nicholas. All 3 nonconference games were without Javen Nicholas. All 4 second-half games were with Javen Nicholas.
Javen Nicholas, receiver: 57 receiving yards and 4 receptions in 3 games this season.
3 games without Javen Nicholas is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +2.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Javen Nicholas vs without Javen Nicholas is about what you’d expect.
A −10.5 difference in points of margin with Javen Nicholas vs without Javen Nicholas is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 14 | 16.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Illinois | W | 4 | -0.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 28 | 20.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs William & Mary | W | 55 | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | L | -3 | 17.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs North Carolina | L | -4 | 3.3 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Virginia | W | 3 | 5.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 45 | 6.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- William & Mary has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.