Duke’s carries with Javen Nicholas and without Javen Nicholas
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Duke was 2.4 carries under with Javen Nicholas and 6.5 carries over without Javen Nicholas over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 33.4 and 39.3, a difference of 5.9. All 5 conference games were with Javen Nicholas. All 3 nonconference games were without Javen Nicholas.
Javen Nicholas, receiver: 57 receiving yards and 4 receptions in 3 of those 25 games.
3 games without Javen Nicholas is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −8.9 difference in carries over expected with Javen Nicholas vs without Javen Nicholas is about what you’d expect.
A −5.9 difference in carries with Javen Nicholas vs without Javen Nicholas is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 22 | 32.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Wake Forest | W | 26 | 28.9 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | L | 23 | 31.7 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsEElon | W | 25 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Illinois | L | 24 | 32.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 23 | 32.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 34 | 29.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Syracuse | W | 36 | 32.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ California | W | 36 | 34.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 31 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Clemson | W | 22 | 31.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UConn | L | 34 | 38.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | 23 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ North Carolina | W | 40 | 34.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsWake Forest | W | 39 | 33.8 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsVirginia (neutral) | W | 43 | 31.7 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | W | 34 | 30.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTulane | W | 48 | 36.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Illinois | W | 33 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 46 | 32.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs William & Mary | W | 37 | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | L | 35 | 38.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsNorth Carolina | L | 30 | 36.7 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Virginia | W | 18 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 38 | 35.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- William & Mary has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Javen Nicholas nor without Javen Nicholas: Javen Nicholas had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.