Delaware’s third-down conversion rate with Nick Minicucci and without Nick Minicucci
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Delaware was 0.2 percentage points over with Nick Minicucci and 7.3 percentage points under without Nick Minicucci in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 39.9% and 28.5%, a difference of 11.4%. Both day games were with Nick Minicucci.
Nick Minicucci, quarterback: 1,477 passing yards, 170 pass attempts and 111 completions in 6 games this season.
3 games without Nick Minicucci is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +7.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Nick Minicucci vs without Nick Minicucci is about what you’d expect.
A +11.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Nick Minicucci vs without Nick Minicucci is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsMMerrimack | W | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 20.0% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 41.7% | 39.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 28.6% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs Liberty | L | 15.4% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 41.7% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 41.7% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ Western Kentucky | W | 50.0% | 31.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Merrimack has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.