Delaware’s third-down conversion rate with Braden Streeter and without Braden Streeter
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Delaware was 6.6 percentage points under with Braden Streeter and 1.0 percentage points under without Braden Streeter over its last 21 games, 1 game against 18. The plain averages are 28.6% and 39.1%, a difference of 10.5%. All 10 home games were without Braden Streeter. Both neutral-site games were without Braden Streeter. All 9 day games were without Braden Streeter.
Braden Streeter, quarterback: 273 passing yards, 54 pass attempts and 24 completions in 6 of those 21 games.
One game with Braden Streeter is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Braden Streeter
−6.6%
without Braden Streeter
−1.0%
-20%0%20%
plain
28.6%
39.1%
20%40%60%
The games
with Braden Streeterwithout Braden Streeter
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsDDelaware State | W | 61.5% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Colorado | L | 20.0% | 35.4% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UConn | W | 40.0% | 39.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Florida International | W | 68.8% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 56.3% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 28.6% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 52.9% | 38.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Liberty | L | 35.3% | 44.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 26.7% | 40.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | L | 30.8% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | 44.4% | 32.7% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 16.7% | 36.0% | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Louisiana (neutral) | W | 42.9% | 42.0% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsMMerrimack | W | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 20.0% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 41.7% | 39.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 28.6% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vsLiberty | L | 15.4% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | L | 41.7% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 41.7% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @Western Kentucky | W | 50.0% | 30.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Delaware State, Merrimack have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.