Delaware’s points of margin with Nick Minicucci and without Nick Minicucci
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Delaware was 2.1 points over with Nick Minicucci and 14.7 points under without Nick Minicucci over its last 21 games, 16 games against 3. The plain averages are 2.5 and -19.3, a difference of 21.8. Both neutral-site games were with Nick Minicucci. All 9 day games were with Nick Minicucci. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Nick Minicucci.
Nick Minicucci, quarterback: 5,158 passing yards, 681 pass attempts and 432 completions in 19 of those 21 games.
3 games without Nick Minicucci is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +16.7 difference in points of margin over expected with Nick Minicucci vs without Nick Minicucci is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Nick Minicucci and it comes up 20 times in 100.
A +21.8 difference in points of margin with Nick Minicucci vs without Nick Minicucci is unusual: shuffle which games were with Nick Minicucci and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsDDelaware State | W | 18 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Colorado | L | -24 | -11.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UConn | W | 3 | -6.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Florida International | W | 22 | -8.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | L | -3 | -3.9 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | @ Jacksonville State | L | -13 | -4.3 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 3 | 6.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Liberty | L | -29 | -1.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 1 | -6.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | L | -3 | 13.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | -38 | -17.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 30 | 4.0 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Louisiana (neutral) | W | 7 | -2.2 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsMMerrimack | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | -9 | -11.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 8 | -1.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | -39 | -2.6 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vsLiberty | L | -16 | -15.5 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | L | -3 | 4.1 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 23 | 7.6 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @Western Kentucky | W | 14 | 2.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Delaware State, Merrimack have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.