Delaware’s pass attempts after a bye and on a normal week
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Delaware was 9.8 pass attempts over after a bye and 0.9 pass attempts over on a normal week over its last 21 games, 4 games against 14. The plain averages are 45.3 and 37.0, a difference of 8.3.
Delaware’s +9.0 after a bye vs on a normal week over expected ranks 5th of the 78 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 21 games.
pass attempts a game over expected
after a bye
+9.8
on a normal week
+0.9
010
A +9.0 difference in pass attempts over expected after a bye vs on a normal week is rare: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
45.3
37.0
304050
A +8.3 difference in pass attempts after a bye vs on a normal week is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up 10 times in 100.
The games
after a byeon a normal week
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsDDelaware State | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Colorado | L | 36 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UConn | W | 34 | 40.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Florida International | W | 35 | 40.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 45 | 40.4 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 50 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 44 | 38.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Liberty | L | 49 | 36.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 52 | 40.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | L | 36 | 36.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | 47 | 40.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 37 | 39.5 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Louisiana (neutral) | W | 30 | 39.1 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsMMerrimack | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 32 | 33.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 32 | 33.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 27 | 32.3 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vsLiberty | L | 35 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | L | 37 | 29.1 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 33 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @Western Kentucky | W | 38 | 31.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 3 games in 2025 and 2026 are neither after a bye nor on a normal week, and sit out.