Delaware’s carries with Nick Minicucci and without Nick Minicucci
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Delaware was 0.8 carries under with Nick Minicucci and 2.9 carries under without Nick Minicucci in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 31.4 and 28.3, a difference of 3.1. Both day games were with Nick Minicucci.
Nick Minicucci, quarterback: 1,477 passing yards, 170 pass attempts and 111 completions in 6 games this season, 14% of Delaware’s carries in those games.
3 games without Nick Minicucci is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +2.1 difference in carries over expected with Nick Minicucci vs without Nick Minicucci is about what you’d expect.
A +3.1 difference in carries with Nick Minicucci vs without Nick Minicucci is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsMMerrimack | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 35 | 31.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 29 | 36.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 30 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs Liberty | L | 25 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 30 | 31.9 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 39 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ Western Kentucky | W | 27 | 32.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Merrimack has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.