Colorado State’s third-down conversion rate with Mel Brown and since Mel Brown’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 6.1 percentage points over with Mel Brown and 5.6 percentage points under since Mel Brown’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 48.9% and 36.4%, a difference of 12.6%. All 5 home games were with Mel Brown. All 4 nonconference games were with Mel Brown.
Mel Brown, running back: 454 rushing yards, 52 carries and 16 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game since Mel Brown’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Mel Brown
+6.1%
since Mel Brown’s last game
−5.6%
0%20%
plain
48.9%
36.4%
40%60%
The games
with Mel Brownsince Mel Brown’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Nevada | W | 46.2% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs Wyoming | W | 25.0% | 28.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Fresno State | L | 29.4% | 34.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Utah State | W | 20.0% | 42.2% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) (neutral) | L | 47.1% | 39.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 23.1% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Northern Colorado | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UTSA | L | 38.9% | 32.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Washington State | L | 38.5% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 28.6% | 32.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vsFresno State | W | 33.3% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Hawaii | L | 40.0% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Wyoming | L | 30.8% | 33.2% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | 7.7% | 34.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 31.3% | 35.0% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Boise State | L | 46.2% | 29.6% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Air Force | L | 25.0% | 44.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsWyoming | W | 46.7% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSouthern Utah | W | 53.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 50.0% | 40.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @UTSA | L | 35.3% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 55.6% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 26.7% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSan Diego State | W | 75.0% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Utah State | L | 36.4% | 42.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Utah has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Mel Brown nor since Mel Brown’s last game: Mel Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.