Colorado State’s third-down conversion rate with Mel Brown and since Mel Brown’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 6.1 percentage points over with Mel Brown and 5.6 percentage points under since Mel Brown’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 48.9% and 36.4%, a difference of 12.6%. All 5 home games were with Mel Brown. All 4 nonconference games were with Mel Brown. All 4 first-half games were with Mel Brown.
Mel Brown, running back: 454 rushing yards, 52 carries and 16 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Mel Brown’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Mel Brown
+6.1%
since Mel Brown’s last game
−5.6%
0%20%
plain
48.9%
36.4%
40%60%
The games
with Mel Brownsince Mel Brown’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 46.7% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSouthern Utah | W | 53.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 50.0% | 40.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | 35.3% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 55.6% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 26.7% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 75.0% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | 36.4% | 42.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Utah has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.