Colorado State’s third-down conversion rate with K'saan Farrar and without K'saan Farrar
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 0.3 percentage points over with K'saan Farrar and 9.9 percentage points over without K'saan Farrar in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 41.9% and 52.8%, a difference of 11.0%.
K'saan Farrar, quarterback: 943 passing yards, 143 pass attempts and 89 completions in 5 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with K'saan Farrar
+0.3%
without K'saan Farrar
+9.9%
0%20%
A −9.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with K'saan Farrar vs without K'saan Farrar is about what you’d expect.
plain
41.9%
52.8%
40%60%
A −11.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with K'saan Farrar vs without K'saan Farrar is about what you’d expect.
The games
with K'saan Farrarwithout K'saan Farrar
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 46.7% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSouthern Utah | W | 53.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 50.0% | 40.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | 35.3% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 55.6% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 26.7% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 75.0% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | 36.4% | 42.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Southern Utah has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.