Colorado State’s third-down conversion rate with Hauss Hejny and without Hauss Hejny
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 9.9 percentage points over with Hauss Hejny and 0.3 percentage points over without Hauss Hejny over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 52.8% and 41.9%, a difference of 11.0%.
Hauss Hejny, quarterback: 1,138 passing yards, 134 pass attempts and 90 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Hauss Hejny
+9.9%
without Hauss Hejny
+0.3%
0%20%
A +9.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Hauss Hejny vs without Hauss Hejny is about what you’d expect.
plain
52.8%
41.9%
40%60%
A +11.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Hauss Hejny vs without Hauss Hejny is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Hauss Hejnywithout Hauss Hejny
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Nevada | W | 46.2% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs Wyoming | W | 25.0% | 28.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Fresno State | L | 29.4% | 34.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Utah State | W | 20.0% | 42.2% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) (neutral) | L | 47.1% | 39.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 23.1% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Northern Colorado | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UTSA | L | 38.9% | 32.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Washington State | L | 38.5% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 28.6% | 32.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vsFresno State | W | 33.3% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Hawaii | L | 40.0% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Wyoming | L | 30.8% | 33.2% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | 7.7% | 34.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 31.3% | 35.0% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Boise State | L | 46.2% | 29.6% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Air Force | L | 25.0% | 44.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsWyoming | W | 46.7% | 43.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSouthern Utah | W | 53.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 50.0% | 40.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @UTSA | L | 35.3% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 55.6% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 26.7% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSan Diego State | W | 75.0% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Utah State | L | 36.4% | 42.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Southern Utah has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Hauss Hejny nor without Hauss Hejny: Hauss Hejny had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.