Colorado State’s points of margin with K'saan Farrar and without K'saan Farrar
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 11.4 points under with K'saan Farrar and 9.4 points over without K'saan Farrar in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are -25.3 and 11.5, a difference of 36.8.
K'saan Farrar, quarterback: 943 passing yards, 143 pass attempts and 89 completions in 5 games this season.
points of margin a game over expected
with K'saan Farrar
−11.4
without K'saan Farrar
+9.4
-20020
A −20.8 difference in points of margin over expected with K'saan Farrar vs without K'saan Farrar is about what you’d expect.
plain
-25.3
11.5
-20020
A −36.8 difference in points of margin with K'saan Farrar vs without K'saan Farrar is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with K'saan Farrar and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
with K'saan Farrarwithout K'saan Farrar
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 22 | -6.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSouthern Utah | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs BYU | L | -18 | -20.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | -14 | -17.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | -30 | -9.9 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | -39 | -8.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 7 | 1.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | -17 | -11.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Southern Utah has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.