Colorado State’s points of margin with Hauss Hejny and without Hauss Hejny
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 9.4 points over with Hauss Hejny and 11.4 points under without Hauss Hejny over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 11.5 and -25.3, a difference of 36.8.
Hauss Hejny, quarterback: 1,138 passing yards, 134 pass attempts and 90 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Hauss Hejny
+9.4
without Hauss Hejny
−11.4
-20020
A +20.8 difference in points of margin over expected with Hauss Hejny vs without Hauss Hejny is about what you’d expect.
plain
11.5
-25.3
-20020
A +36.8 difference in points of margin with Hauss Hejny vs without Hauss Hejny is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Hauss Hejny and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
with Hauss Hejnywithout Hauss Hejny
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Nevada | W | 17 | -4.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs Wyoming | W | 14 | 4.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Fresno State | L | -6 | -5.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Utah State | W | 5 | 5.8 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) (neutral) | L | -26 | -3.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Washington | L | -17 | -34.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Northern Colorado | W | 4 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UTSA | L | -1 | -13.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Washington State | L | -17 | -13.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | -21 | -17.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vsFresno State | W | 28 | -12.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Hawaii | L | -12 | -5.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Wyoming | L | -28 | 0.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | -32 | -4.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | -3 | -17.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Boise State | L | -28 | -16.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Air Force | L | -21 | 1.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsWyoming | W | 22 | -6.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSouthern Utah | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs BYU | L | -18 | -20.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @UTSA | L | -14 | -17.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | -30 | -9.9 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | -39 | -8.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSan Diego State | W | 7 | 1.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Utah State | L | -17 | -11.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Southern Utah has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Hauss Hejny nor without Hauss Hejny: Hauss Hejny had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.