Putting Up Numbers· college football

Colorado State’s penalty yards with K'saan Farrar and without K'saan Farrar

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 6.8 yards under with K'saan Farrar and 19.2 yards under without K'saan Farrar in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 45.8 and 29.0, a difference of 16.8.

K'saan Farrar, quarterback: 943 passing yards, 143 pass attempts and 89 completions in 5 games this season.

penalty yards a game over expected

A +12.4 difference in penalty yards over expected with K'saan Farrar vs without K'saan Farrar is about what you’d expect.

A +16.8 difference in penalty yards with K'saan Farrar vs without K'saan Farrar is about what you’d expect.

The games

with K'saan Farrarwithout K'saan Farrar
Colorado State’s games, 2026, each marked with K'saan Farrar or without K'saan Farrar
SideDateGameResultpenalty yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsWyomingW3652.8
Sep 12, 2026vsSSouthern UtahW20—
Sep 19, 2026vsBYUL2547.9
Sep 26, 2026@UTSAL6155.8
Oct 3, 2026vsOregon StateL2055.9
Oct 15, 2026@Texas StateL7750.6
Oct 24, 2026vsSan Diego StateW2548.1
Oct 31, 2026@Utah StateL3552.5

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 27% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • Southern Utah has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.