Colorado State’s passing yards with Mel Brown and since Mel Brown’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 24.2 yards over with Mel Brown and 48.5 yards under since Mel Brown’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 284.7 and 186.0, a difference of 98.7. All 5 home games were with Mel Brown. All 4 nonconference games were with Mel Brown. All 4 first-half games were with Mel Brown.
Mel Brown, running back: 454 rushing yards, 52 carries and 16 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Mel Brown’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
with Mel Brown
+24.2
since Mel Brown’s last game
−48.5
-50050100
plain
284.7
186.0
200250300350
The games
with Mel Brownsince Mel Brown’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 242 | 231.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSouthern Utah | W | 382 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 220 | 211.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | 344 | 227.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 183 | 252.7 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 289 | 287.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 333 | 254.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | 186 | 234.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Utah has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.