Colorado State’s carries with Mel Brown and since Mel Brown’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 1.5 carries under with Mel Brown and 4.5 carries under since Mel Brown’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 30.9 and 25.0, a difference of 5.9. All 5 home games were with Mel Brown. All 4 nonconference games were with Mel Brown. All 4 first-half games were with Mel Brown.
Mel Brown, running back: 454 rushing yards, 52 carries and 16 receptions in 7 games this season, 24% of Colorado State’s carries in those games.
One game since Mel Brown’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Mel Brown
−1.5
since Mel Brown’s last game
−4.5
-50
plain
30.9
25.0
25303540
The games
with Mel Brownsince Mel Brown’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 31 | 33.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSouthern Utah | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 24 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | 32 | 31.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 28 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 31 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 40 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | 25 | 29.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern Utah has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.