Colorado State’s carries with Hauss Hejny and without Hauss Hejny
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 1.6 carries under with Hauss Hejny and 2.2 carries under without Hauss Hejny in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 31.5 and 28.8, a difference of 2.8.
Hauss Hejny, quarterback: 1,138 passing yards, 134 pass attempts and 90 completions in 5 games this season, 20% of Colorado State’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Hauss Hejny
−1.6
without Hauss Hejny
−2.2
-50
A +0.6 difference in carries over expected with Hauss Hejny vs without Hauss Hejny is about what you’d expect.
plain
31.5
28.8
25303540
A +2.8 difference in carries with Hauss Hejny vs without Hauss Hejny is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Hauss Hejnywithout Hauss Hejny
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 31 | 33.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSouthern Utah | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 24 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UTSA | L | 32 | 31.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 28 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 31 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 40 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | 25 | 29.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Southern Utah has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.