Colorado State’s carries after a bye and on a normal week
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado State was 6.5 carries over after a bye and 3.7 carries under on a normal week over its last 25 games, 4 games against 16. The plain averages are 36.0 and 29.8, a difference of 6.2. Both opponents outside the major colleges were on a normal week.
Colorado State’s +10.2 after a bye vs on a normal week over expected ranks 1st of the 78 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
carries a game over expected
A +10.2 difference in carries over expected after a bye vs on a normal week is unusual: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up 4 times in 100.
A +6.2 difference in carries after a bye vs on a normal week is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Nevada | W | 36 | 35.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | vs Wyoming | W | 42 | 30.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Fresno State | L | 29 | 35.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Utah State | W | 28 | 39.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) (neutral) | L | 30 | 34.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 27 | 28.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Northern Colorado | W | 46 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UTSA | L | 37 | 27.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Washington State | L | 37 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 35 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | vsFresno State | W | 35 | 31.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Hawaii | L | 34 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Wyoming | L | 27 | 33.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | 34 | 30.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 25 | 31.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Boise State | L | 16 | 30.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Air Force | L | 9 | 30.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsWyoming | W | 31 | 33.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSouthern Utah | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs BYU | L | 24 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @UTSA | L | 32 | 31.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 28 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 31 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSan Diego State | W | 40 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Utah State | L | 25 | 29.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northern Colorado, Southern Utah have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- 3 games in 2024 and 2025 and 2026 are neither after a bye nor on a normal week, and sit out.