Coastal Carolina’s third-down conversion rate with Jevon Edwards and without Jevon Edwards
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Coastal Carolina was 2.3 percentage points under with Jevon Edwards and 15.5 percentage points under without Jevon Edwards over its last 25 games, 18 games against 1. The plain averages are 34.9% and 25.0%, a difference of 9.9%. All 10 home games were with Jevon Edwards. All 9 day games were with Jevon Edwards. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jevon Edwards.
Jevon Edwards, running back: 509 rushing yards, 109 carries and 11 receptions in 19 of those 25 games.
One game without Jevon Edwards is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jevon Edwards
−2.3%
without Jevon Edwards
−15.5%
-20%0%20%
plain
34.9%
25.0%
20%40%60%
The games
with Jevon Edwardswithout Jevon Edwards
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Marshall | L | 50.0% | 34.3% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 16.7% | 46.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Georgia State | W | 66.7% | 38.0% | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | @ UTSA | L | 31.3% | 33.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Virginia | L | 7.1% | 27.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs East Carolina | L | 35.7% | 30.8% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 36.4% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | 41.2% | 30.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 31.3% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Appalachian State | W | 60.0% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vsMarshall | W | 37.5% | 36.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsGeorgia State | W | 40.0% | 41.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Georgia Southern | L | 37.5% | 42.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ South Carolina | L | 33.3% | 32.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs James Madison | L | 12.5% | 32.3% | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech (neutral) | L | 14.3% | 37.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ West Virginia | L | 20.0% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Fordham | W | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Delaware | L | 50.0% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | vs Liberty | L | 35.7% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsGeorgia Southern | L | 23.1% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Marshall | W | 25.0% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vsAppalachian State | L | 54.5% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Georgia State | W | 30.8% | 34.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Charleston Southern, Fordham have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Jevon Edwards nor without Jevon Edwards: Jevon Edwards had no game for the team that season, and sit out.