Coastal Carolina’s third-down conversion rate with Jevon Edwards and without Jevon Edwards
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Coastal Carolina was 0.9 percentage points under with Jevon Edwards and 15.5 percentage points under without Jevon Edwards in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.2% and 25.0%, a difference of 12.2%. All 4 home games were with Jevon Edwards. All 4 day games were with Jevon Edwards. All 4 nonconference games were with Jevon Edwards.
Jevon Edwards, running back: 141 rushing yards, 44 carries and 4 receptions in 6 games this season.
One game without Jevon Edwards is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jevon Edwards
−0.9%
without Jevon Edwards
−15.5%
-10%0%10%
plain
37.2%
25.0%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Jevon Edwardswithout Jevon Edwards
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ West Virginia | L | 20.0% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Fordham | W | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Delaware | L | 50.0% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | vs Liberty | L | 35.7% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 23.1% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Marshall | W | 25.0% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | L | 54.5% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Georgia State | W | 30.8% | 34.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Fordham has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.