Cincinnati’s third-down conversion rate with Gi'Bran Payne and without Gi'Bran Payne
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Cincinnati was 2.7 percentage points over with Gi'Bran Payne and 9.4 percentage points under without Gi'Bran Payne over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 46.8% and 30.8%, a difference of 16.0%. Both away games were with Gi'Bran Payne. All 3 night games were with Gi'Bran Payne. All 6 unranked opponents were with Gi'Bran Payne.
Gi'Bran Payne, running back: 485 rushing yards, 78 carries and 7 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Gi'Bran Payne is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Gi'Bran Payne
+2.7%
without Gi'Bran Payne
−9.4%
-10%0%10%
plain
46.8%
30.8%
40%60%
The games
with Gi'Bran Paynewithout Gi'Bran Payne
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs West Virginia | L | 43.8% | 43.3% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Iowa State | L | 27.3% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Kansas State | L | 25.0% | 38.4% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs TCU | L | 46.7% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | L | 30.0% | 39.5% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | W | 28.6% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Northwestern State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Kansas | W | 43.8% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsIowa State | W | 36.4% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 22.2% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 60.0% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Baylor | W | 64.3% | 37.5% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Utah | L | 42.9% | 34.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Arizona | L | 25.0% | 37.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs BYU | L | 30.8% | 34.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @TCU | L | 33.3% | 35.9% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Navy (neutral) | L | 30.8% | 40.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 41.7% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Carolina | W | 72.7% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 42.9% | 46.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsKansas State | W | 45.5% | 38.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Arizona | L | 43.8% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @West Virginia | L | 53.8% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | W | 30.8% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsUtah | L | 27.3% | 39.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Western Carolina has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Gi'Bran Payne nor without Gi'Bran Payne: Gi'Bran Payne had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.