Cincinnati’s points of margin with Gi'Bran Payne and without Gi'Bran Payne
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Cincinnati was 5.1 points under with Gi'Bran Payne and 27.4 points over without Gi'Bran Payne over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 3.7 and 13.0, a difference of 9.3. Expected was 15.1 points higher with Gi'Bran Payne than without Gi'Bran Payne. Both away games were with Gi'Bran Payne. All 3 night games were with Gi'Bran Payne. All 6 unranked opponents were with Gi'Bran Payne.
Gi'Bran Payne, running back: 485 rushing yards, 78 carries and 7 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Gi'Bran Payne is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Gi'Bran Payne
−5.1
without Gi'Bran Payne
+27.4
020
plain
3.7
13.0
-2002040
The games
with Gi'Bran Paynewithout Gi'Bran Payne
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs West Virginia | L | -7 | 10.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Iowa State | L | -17 | -8.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Kansas State | L | -26 | -4.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs TCU | L | -7 | 1.5 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | L | -3 | -3.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | W | 14 | 22.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Northwestern State | W | 70 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Kansas | W | 3 | -5.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsIowa State | W | 8 | -3.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 9 | 7.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 32 | 10.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Baylor | W | 21 | 0.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Utah | L | -31 | -20.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Arizona | L | -6 | -6.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs BYU | L | -12 | -9.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @TCU | L | -22 | -6.6 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Navy (neutral) | L | -22 | 6.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 19 | 5.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Carolina | W | 52 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 4 | 21.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsKansas State | W | 5 | 2.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Arizona | L | -27 | -10.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @West Virginia | L | -3 | -3.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | W | 13 | -14.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsUtah | L | -24 | -11.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Western Carolina has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Gi'Bran Payne nor without Gi'Bran Payne: Gi'Bran Payne had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.