Cincinnati’s points of margin with Gi'Bran Payne and without Gi'Bran Payne
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Cincinnati was 5.1 points under with Gi'Bran Payne and 27.4 points over without Gi'Bran Payne in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 3.7 and 13.0, a difference of 9.3. Expected was 15.1 points higher with Gi'Bran Payne than without Gi'Bran Payne. Both away games were with Gi'Bran Payne. All 3 night games were with Gi'Bran Payne. All 6 unranked opponents were with Gi'Bran Payne.
Gi'Bran Payne, running back: 485 rushing yards, 78 carries and 7 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Gi'Bran Payne is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Gi'Bran Payne
−5.1
without Gi'Bran Payne
+27.4
020
plain
3.7
13.0
-2002040
The games
with Gi'Bran Paynewithout Gi'Bran Payne
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 19 | 5.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Carolina | W | 52 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 4 | 21.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Kansas State | W | 5 | 2.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Arizona | L | -27 | -10.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ West Virginia | L | -3 | -3.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | W | 13 | -14.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Utah | L | -24 | -11.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Western Carolina has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.