Cincinnati’s points allowed with Gi'Bran Payne and without Gi'Bran Payne
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Cincinnati was 4.5 points over with Gi'Bran Payne and 13.4 points under without Gi'Bran Payne in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 30.0 and 24.0, a difference of 6.0. Expected was 8.6 points lower with Gi'Bran Payne than without Gi'Bran Payne. Both away games were with Gi'Bran Payne. All 3 night games were with Gi'Bran Payne. All 6 unranked opponents were with Gi'Bran Payne.
Gi'Bran Payne, running back: 485 rushing yards, 78 carries and 7 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Gi'Bran Payne is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Gi'Bran Payne
+4.5
without Gi'Bran Payne
−13.4
-10010
plain
30.0
24.0
10203040
The games
with Gi'Bran Paynewithout Gi'Bran Payne
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 15 | 24.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Western Carolina | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 31 | 18.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Kansas State | W | 26 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Arizona | L | 34 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ West Virginia | L | 45 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | W | 24 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Utah | L | 49 | 32.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Western Carolina has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.