Charlotte’s third-down conversion rate with Conner Harrell and without Conner Harrell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Charlotte was 4.6 percentage points over with Conner Harrell and 9.0 percentage points under without Conner Harrell over its last 25 games, 5 games against 13. The plain averages are 45.3% and 27.4%, a difference of 17.9%. All 3 ranked opponents were without Conner Harrell. Both top-10 opponents were without Conner Harrell.
Conner Harrell, quarterback: 1,568 passing yards, 204 pass attempts and 138 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +13.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Conner Harrell vs without Conner Harrell is unusual: shuffle which games were with Conner Harrell and it comes up 4 times in 100.
A +17.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Conner Harrell vs without Conner Harrell is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Conner Harrell and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Memphis | L | 41.7% | 34.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2024 | vs Tulane | L | 11.1% | 32.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs South Florida | L | 35.7% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 30.8% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UAB | W | 30.8% | 37.8% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Appalachian State (neutral) | L | 28.6% | 40.3% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs North Carolina | L | 43.8% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMonmouth | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | vs Rice | L | 44.4% | 34.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @South Florida | L | 33.3% | 33.8% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Army | L | 35.7% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Temple | L | 37.5% | 34.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 25.0% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ East Carolina | L | 28.6% | 30.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UTSA | L | 40.0% | 30.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 9.1% | 31.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Tulane | L | 15.4% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs The Citadel | L | 64.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 21.4% | 32.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Appalachian State | L | 10.0% | 33.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Louisiana | L | 9.1% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMemphis | L | 10.0% | 30.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @North Texas | L | 23.1% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Temple | W | 60.0% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsTulane | L | 50.0% | 36.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Monmouth, The Citadel have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Conner Harrell nor without Conner Harrell: Conner Harrell had no game for the team that season, and sit out.