Charlotte’s third-down conversion rate with Conner Harrell and without Conner Harrell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Charlotte was 8.6 percentage points over with Conner Harrell and 20.0 percentage points under without Conner Harrell in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 44.4% and 23.0%, a difference of 21.3%. All 4 nonconference games were without Conner Harrell. All 4 first-half games were without Conner Harrell.
Conner Harrell, quarterback: 831 passing yards, 108 pass attempts and 74 completions in 5 games this season.
3 games with Conner Harrell is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +28.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Conner Harrell vs without Conner Harrell is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Conner Harrell and it comes up 5 times in 100.
A +21.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Conner Harrell vs without Conner Harrell is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs The Citadel | L | 64.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 21.4% | 32.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | L | 10.0% | 33.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Louisiana | L | 9.1% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | 10.0% | 30.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 23.1% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 60.0% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Tulane | L | 50.0% | 36.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.