Charlotte’s rushing yards with Conner Harrell and without Conner Harrell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Charlotte was 21.7 yards over with Conner Harrell and 42.5 yards under without Conner Harrell in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 147.7 and 116.6, a difference of 31.1. All 4 nonconference games were without Conner Harrell. All 4 first-half games were without Conner Harrell.
Conner Harrell, quarterback: 831 passing yards, 108 pass attempts and 74 completions in 5 games this season, 8% of Charlotte’s rushing yards in those games.
3 games with Conner Harrell is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +64.2 difference in rushing yards over expected with Conner Harrell vs without Conner Harrell is about what you’d expect.
A +31.1 difference in rushing yards with Conner Harrell vs without Conner Harrell is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs The Citadel | L | 216 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 143 | 88.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | L | 46 | 142.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Louisiana | L | 26 | 153.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | 152 | 152.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 56 | 128.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 171 | 117.8 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Tulane | L | 216 | 132.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.