Charlotte’s points of margin with Conner Harrell and without Conner Harrell
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Charlotte was 4.5 points under with Conner Harrell and 3.5 points under without Conner Harrell over its last 25 games, 5 games against 13. The plain averages are -12.2 and -24.9, a difference of 12.7. All 3 ranked opponents were without Conner Harrell. Both top-10 opponents were without Conner Harrell.
Conner Harrell, quarterback: 1,568 passing yards, 204 pass attempts and 138 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Conner Harrell
−4.5
without Conner Harrell
−3.5
-40-20020
A −1.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Conner Harrell vs without Conner Harrell is about what you’d expect.
plain
-12.2
-24.9
-40-200
A +12.7 difference in points of margin with Conner Harrell vs without Conner Harrell is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Conner Harrellwithout Conner Harrell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Memphis | L | -5 | -17.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2024 | vs Tulane | L | -31 | -15.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs South Florida | L | -35 | 1.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 12 | -1.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UAB | W | 2 | 5.7 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Appalachian State (neutral) | L | -23 | -3.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs North Carolina | L | -17 | -10.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMonmouth | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | vs Rice | L | -11 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @South Florida | L | -28 | -37.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Army | L | -17 | -24.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Temple | L | -35 | -6.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | -34 | -28.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ East Carolina | L | -26 | -30.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UTSA | L | -21 | -21.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | -32 | -45.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Tulane | L | -27 | -27.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs The Citadel | L | -2 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | -32 | -45.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Appalachian State | L | -5 | -13.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Louisiana | L | -27 | -9.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMemphis | L | -51 | -10.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @North Texas | L | -40 | -18.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Temple | W | 7 | -15.3 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsTulane | L | -7 | -9.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Monmouth, The Citadel have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Conner Harrell nor without Conner Harrell: Conner Harrell had no game for the team that season, and sit out.